Nationally active inventory has stayed roughly unchanged for 13 weeks now, peaking back on August 1st. This return to normal seasonality, driven by high withdrawals and lower new listings, means inventory is not climbing like it did in the fall of the last three years. Above are annual charts comparing back to 2016. Expectations are to remain at these levels.
Locally, we are seeing a similar trend. But we expect inventory to become even lower. In the charts below, we can see:
1) New inventory is the lowest since last December.
2) The number of homes in contract remains steady.
But the other statistic that is interesting in our market with many second home owners is the “withdrawal/cancel” market. In a second home markets we have more "discretionary sellers". This group includes second-home owners or investors who tested the market and decided "now is not the time." They have plenty of equity and low holding costs, so they wait for a better environment. This year through 10/31/2025 the withdrawal rate is 29.1% higher than last year to date (133 in 2025 versus 103 in 2024). Are these sellers just deciding to wait for market conditions to improve of take their homes off the market all together? Would these sellers still sell now? Will this inventory come back to market in 2026?
Why does this all matter and what does it mean for your home or your home search?
See all the reports and reach out to me to learn more.
LOCALLY | Carmel, Pebble Beach, Pacific Grove, Monterey, Carmel Valley, Big Sur
